tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post3895233366880955430..comments2023-07-12T06:12:30.772-07:00Comments on Demand Side Transcript: Transcript: 351 Friday Forecast, er, Market PredictionsAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-32230875424422202412010-02-03T01:54:26.391-08:002010-02-03T01:54:26.391-08:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-7407452803267673062010-02-02T22:24:29.650-08:002010-02-02T22:24:29.650-08:00The US, and UK markets are grossly overvalued. The...The US, and UK markets are grossly overvalued. The price to earnings ratios are out of alignment with the reality of the economy. Some of the support has come from the excess liquidity floating around. Personally I think that the Dow will fall below 5000 and the S&P below 500.<br /><br />There has been a lot of hot money flowing into commodities and at some point these bubbles will burst as well. Oil as you say is probably over valued on current demand but longer term this may be the last few years of cheap oil as peak oil impacts on the real world. <br /><br />Real estate will suffer, as there simply will not be sufficient demand for commercial or residential property. That will mean further problems for banks with prime mortgages recasting over the next three years. Without any job creation home sales will stay low.<br /><br />I do not agree about the end of the bear market. I think that it has a number of years to run. This is based primarily on unrealistic P/E ratios now, and that will take some time to resolve itself. Then the recovery will be weak because of the actions of the deficit hawks. The US will suffer a L shaped recovery. At least until the mortgage recasts are over. <br /><br />Commodity markets will deteriorate in time. Much of the current support is down to stock building in China, and speculation. That cannot continue without China being able to export the goods that those commodities were purchased for. China is already over heating though I have more faith in China being able to regulate their crisis. <br /><br />Regarding the CDS markets. If there are any sovereign defaults, that will have detrimental impact on the banks. I would also include Ireland and possibly Iceland as being at risk.David Lazarusnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-37899247631293701992010-01-31T17:53:39.839-08:002010-01-31T17:53:39.839-08:00I have not, except second hand through Marshall Au...I have not, except second hand through Marshall Auerbach and Steve Keen. Would be interested in some succinct description.<br /><br />My take is that while it may be correct in theory and might work in practice, getting from here to there would require a complete re-education of the population and office-holders that is not in prospect.Alanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-32052260313550044752010-01-31T16:31:03.676-08:002010-01-31T16:31:03.676-08:00have you read any chartalist/modern monetary theor...have you read any chartalist/modern monetary theory?nathan tankusnoreply@blogger.com