tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post6883693543335565793..comments2023-07-12T06:12:30.772-07:00Comments on Demand Side Transcript: Transcript 454: Forecast: ProductivityAlanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-61085164820775646132011-08-26T08:58:59.502-07:002011-08-26T08:58:59.502-07:00We will consider that. We're pressed for the ...We will consider that. We're pressed for the next few ... months. But we liked it too.Alanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07323700324276425194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-14168520518198056602011-08-26T08:25:06.238-07:002011-08-26T08:25:06.238-07:00453! Thanks for that your effort and incite is muc...453! Thanks for that your effort and incite is much appreciated. Any chance for a return of the relay?BVNhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14506990915799710452noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1527766217650773141.post-7482354761201799412011-08-22T11:40:39.171-07:002011-08-22T11:40:39.171-07:00The improvement in the economy over the last three...The improvement in the economy over the last three years has been the result of all the stimulus from the government spending. As any last remnant of stimulus is removed the US economy will fall back into the state that it would have been. That could mean 10% plus unemployment. Though because of the way US figures are calculated, and unemployment being significantly understated, because so many will have fallen off the end of the scale because they have been unemployed so long. The U6 measure going above 20% is more accurate representation of the true nature of the US economy. Simply because of the nature of workers moving top part time work so while not unemployed will be a drain on the economy as their spending will be so limited. <br /><br />I never bought into the recovery thesis. I always felt that the economy was still completely dependant on stimulus. It was never long enough or large enough to help families clear their debts. The household sector is still seriously indebted and with weak incomes its will be very hard for them to pay down that debt. Small businesses are still finding access to working capital very tough because the banks are ramping up lending standards.<br /><br />The only good thing about the austerity is that the debt burden climbs until debtors break and default wiping out that debt burden. I do agree that the economy will take another leg down. Housing might have further to fall making strategic defaults even more likely. Retail and commercial property could face even more falls. State budgets will become ever more squeezed as they try and balance the books, making more cuts. Ironically as infrastructure deteriorates the costs will be passed to all who use it lowering productivity. It will be interesting to see what Neoliberal economic policy comes out with next.David Lazarusnoreply@blogger.com