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Sunday, October 14, 2012

Transcript: Punch List October 15

Today we're going to virtually all audio.

The opinions of economists are a lagging indicator. The joke is that they've predicted five of the last three recessions. But the real joke is that they've predicted two of the last zero recoveries. And as you'll hear later from Vincent Reinhardt, by now we should be in expansion, rather than recovery. The fact that the consensus is still talking anemic recovery means they are well behind any curve.
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Yale's Robert Shiller does not call a housing bottom or recovery. He of the Case-Shiller, and his sense is continuation downward.

Seabreesez's Doug Kass is shorting the markets on weak fundamentals, along with MFR's Josh Shapiro.

RBC's Tom Porcelli says the jobs report reflects continuing and troubling weakness.

Nomura's Alistair Newton says Europe's woes are not close to being over.

Morgan Stanley's Vincent Reinhardt sees economic stall speed.

and back to MFR's Josh Shapiro saying shared sacrifice is the only sacrifice that can be made.

Remember, when you hear forecasts, they not talking about the future. These are Q3 and Q4 forecasts. We were doing this last year. More or less.

Here is Robert Shiller: Is the latest bump off the bottom a recovery?


Doug Kass on the Markets. Josh Shapiro from MFR chimes in. Undoubtedly the Fed's cheap chips are making a difference in the game, but what happens when at the end of the night the lights go out?


Now Tom Porcelli with a primer on the latest jobs report.


Alistair Newton. Now of Nomura. Two years ago, all would be well if the tiny economy of Greece just accepted the austerity pushed by the ECB and IMF. Last year, the U.K. elected austerity. How is that working out?


Vincent Reinhardt, formerly of research at the Greenspan Fed, now with Morgan Stanley sees a few bumps.



Not quite the right spin. The dual mandate was issued in the Humphrey-Hawkins bill of 1978, the so-called full employment act, to counteract the Fed's insistence on shutting down the economy to combat inflation. Congress wanted them to coordinate with fiscal policy to avert a recession. Bill passed. The Fed under the now sainted Paul Volcker said, No, thanks. Economy stalled. Now the shoe is on the other foot. The Fed has continuously lowered interest rates and made credit cheaper, not, we suspect, for the benefit of the unemployed, but for the stock market. All right, there is the trickle down theory. But the Congress is stalled.


And back to Josh Shapiro for some closing remarks.


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